Monday, April 28, 2025

When America Falters, the World Pays: Trump's Economic Misadventures and India's Stakes

 

Dr. Asis Mistry


As Donald Trump continues to wreak havoc on the American economy, the silence of Republican leaders and Wall Street executives is deafening — and dangerous, not just for the United States, but for the entire global economy, India included.

Trump’s impulsive trade wars, his attack on independent institutions like the U.S. Federal Reserve, and his destabilising rhetoric on global alliances are not just domestic American matters. In today's interconnected world, America’s economic health is closely tied to India's aspirations for growth, stability, and global leadership. Yet those with the most to lose inside America — its corporate chiefs and political guardians — remain largely mum, hoping futilely that private persuasion will work where public accountability is urgently needed.

The pattern is clear: American businesses, despite seeing their stock prices tumble and their international competitiveness wane, are choosing silence. Republican lawmakers, even as Trump’s tariffs hurt their own rural and working-class voters, remain subservient. Trade groups, which never hesitated to criticise past administrations, now offer little more than polite platitudes.

This matters for India because we, too, are part of the intricate global supply chains Trump is disrupting. Our IT exports, pharmaceutical supplies, and manufacturing sectors are all deeply linked to U.S. markets. Rising protectionism and unpredictable tariffs not only rattle global investor confidence but also slow down India's exports and investment inflows. When American farmers lose international customers due to retaliatory tariffs, it impacts global food prices, a delicate issue for India’s inflation management. When American tech companies face uncertainty, India's IT and service sectors feel the tremors.

There’s a belief among American CEOs that they can whisper sense into Trump's ear behind closed doors. But reality shows otherwise. Temporary concessions — like exemptions for iPhones or vague promises about tariff reductions — are short-lived. The underlying trajectory remains dangerous: an America moving away from a rules-based order towards erratic, personalised decision-making.

This week, another "leak" suggested Trump might lower China tariffs from 145% to a still-draconian 50%. Markets briefly celebrated, hoping for a cooling-off. But hope, especially when based on anonymous sources and "fake news" accusations from Beijing, is not a strategy. A 50% tariff is hardly a victory — it is an economic noose, tightened slightly less.

Trump’s threats against the U.S. Federal Reserve are even more alarming. His pressure to slash interest rates to support short-term political gains risks undermining the Fed’s long-cherished independence — the same independence that has allowed America to maintain monetary stability for decades. India, striving to strengthen its institutional credibility with independent bodies like the RBI, watches with concern. When politicians control monetary policy, the results are often catastrophic — think Venezuela or Turkey.

Yet, public pushback from within America remains feeble. An occasional senator mumbles about the need for an "independent" Fed, only to quickly walk it back with jokes about "hot cocoa" and private hugs. It’s not the kind of principled leadership the world expects from a country that has long projected itself as the steward of democracy and free enterprise.

This abdication of leadership poses risks and lessons for India and the broader developing world. We cannot afford to rely on a volatile U.S. to underpin global economic stability. We must strengthen South-South trade linkages, diversify our export markets, invest in homegrown innovation, and advocate for a truly multipolar world order. At the same time, India must remain vocal about defending democratic norms and institutional independence — lessons we must internalise at home too.

American business and political elites may think they are buying time with their silence. They are not. They are gambling not just with their future, but with the future of countries like India that have, for long, considered America a partner in prosperity.

Silence is complicity. And in today’s world, complicity comes at a global cost.

 

@Author is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Calcutta

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