Dr. Asis Mistry
When President Mohamed Muizzu chose Beijing over New Delhi for his first official foreign visit after assuming office in November 2023, the message was loud and clear: the Maldives is asserting a new political orientation in the Indian Ocean, and India cannot afford to ignore it. What followed was a series of diplomatic ripples—a public spat over tourism, the March 15 deadline for Indian military withdrawal, and inflammatory social media exchanges. This was not just a diplomatic episode; it was the visible tip of a deeper tectonic shift in the Maldives’ foreign and domestic politics.
In a region where geography defines strategy, the Maldives—a small archipelagic state straddling vital sea lanes—has emerged as a theatre of great power competition. Traditionally a close partner of India, the Maldives now finds itself at the centre of competing interests, with China making substantial inroads in infrastructure, tourism, and political influence. But the story is more complex than a binary India-China contest. Domestic political shifts in the Maldives are as important as external pressures in determining the country’s strategic choices. And India must read these shifts carefully.
Beyond the Optics: Understanding Maldives’ Political Transformation
The Maldives has long projected an image of tropical tranquillity, but its political history is anything but calm. After centuries of monarchical rule and decades of authoritarian governance under President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, the democratic opening in 2008 marked a watershed. The election of Mohamed Nasheed brought optimism for political reform, human rights, and a values-based foreign policy aligned closely with India.
However, democratic gains proved fragile. Subsequent years saw repeated institutional crises, judicial overreach, and contested elections. The rise of Abdulla Yameen in 2013 and his authoritarian pivot, marked by tighter control over the press, judiciary, and civil society, coincided with a growing tilt toward China. Infrastructure loans, maritime agreements, and opaque deals followed. India watched nervously as its strategic backyard began slipping out of its orbit.
In 2018, the pendulum swung back with the victory of the India-friendly Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. His administration restored bilateral trust and revived Indian-backed development projects. But political volatility remained. With the return of a nationalist, “India Out” narrative under Muizzu in 2023, the cycle repeated. The irony is that Maldives’ foreign policy turns are not mere expressions of geopolitical preference—they are tightly interwoven with domestic legitimacy, coalition politics, and elite rivalries.
The Logic of Linkage Politics
International relations theorist James Rosenau’s concept of “linkage politics” helps us unpack this phenomenon. Domestic and international issues are not separate spheres but deeply intertwined. In the Maldives, leaders often leverage foreign alignments to strengthen domestic authority. The call for the removal of Indian military personnel—used for humanitarian and rescue operations—was less about military sovereignty and more about political symbolism. It was a campaign promise transformed into policy, backed by a claim of popular mandate.
China, unlike India, offers a more transactional model—focused on infrastructure, trade, and debt diplomacy, with fewer concerns about governance or transparency. For small states with high developmental aspirations and fragile institutions, this model can be tempting. Yet the long-term costs—in terms of debt dependence, erosion of democratic norms, and strategic vulnerability—are significant.
A Cultural and Strategic Neighbourhood
India’s historical, cultural, and geographic closeness to the Maldives remains a potent asset. Just 70 nautical miles away, India has been a reliable partner—from helping quash the 1988 coup attempt to providing vital aid during the 2004 tsunami and Male’s 2014 water crisis. More recently, India has invested heavily in infrastructure (the Greater Male Connectivity Project), healthcare (Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital), and education.
Yet, proximity and benevolence alone no longer suffice. Perceptions matter. The image of India as a “big brother” with hegemonic tendencies has gained traction among segments of the Maldivian political class and public. This perception, regardless of its accuracy, must be taken seriously and addressed with humility and strategic clarity.
Strategic Patience and Smart Partnerships
So, what should India do in response to these developments? First, avoid the trap of reactive diplomacy. India’s initial response to the Maldives’ shift—summoning envoys, suspending travel bookings, and unleashing social media outrage—may have been emotionally satisfying, but was diplomatically counterproductive. Strategic patience is the key.
Second, India must recalibrate its engagement by focusing on long-term partnership building. This includes:
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Soft power diplomacy: Investing in people-to-people ties, scholarships, cultural exchanges, and media literacy programs that build mutual understanding and counter anti-India narratives.
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Smart development assistance: Prioritising sectors that resonate with Maldivian aspirations—climate resilience, fisheries, renewable energy, and youth employment—while ensuring transparency and community involvement.
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Security collaboration without boots on the ground: Replacing military personnel with trained technical experts, as recently negotiated, is a wise move. It preserves India’s HADR (Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief) footprint without feeding sovereignty concerns.
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Regional multilateralism: Strengthening platforms like BIMSTEC and IORA, where India can work with like-minded partners to uphold a rules-based order and maritime security.
Third, India must recognise that its influence will always face competition, not just from China but also from Gulf states, Western partners, and even non-state actors promoting religious radicalism. In this crowded arena, India's comparative advantage lies in offering a model of inclusive growth, democratic resilience, and cultural affinity.
Domestic Winds, External Waves
What’s unfolding in the Maldives is not just a small island state asserting autonomy; it is a case study in how domestic political change, strategic geography, and global power shifts intersect. India’s approach must go beyond aid and access—it must understand and respect the evolving political subjectivity of its smaller neighbours.
The Indian Ocean is becoming an ocean of contestation—of infrastructure, ideology, and influence. The Maldives is a microcosm of these broader tensions. How India responds today will shape not just the trajectory of Indo-Maldivian relations but also the broader credibility of its Indo-Pacific vision.
As India aspires to play the role of a regional leader and a global balancing power, it must master the art of engagement without domination, of partnership without paternalism. The Maldives, with its strategic location and sensitive political fabric, offers the perfect test case.
@ Author is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Calcutta.
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